Goldman Raises US Recession Probability to 35% on Banking Stress

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted its estimate of the odds of a US recession to 35% over the next 12 months in response to increased uncertainty over the economic impact of bank stress.

Economists led by Jan Hatzius raised Goldman’s assessment of the prospects of a slump from a previous one-in-four chance after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The new estimate is still below the 60% median of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.