'Covid-zero' nations adjust to the Delta variant's reality

New York

MORE than an aviation hub, Singapore's Changi airport is a tropical paradise featuring the world's tallest indoor waterfall, a butterfly sanctuary, orchids and lush groves of fig trees - all under a soaring glass canopy.

Beyond lies one of the world's most open and competitive economies.

But Singapore has been largely closed for more than a year. Like other places in East Asia and the Pacific, it pursued a "Covid-zero" policy aimed at chasing down and eliminating the virus altogether. That approach spared Singapore high death tolls and hospitalisations, yet it was a catastrophe for Changi.

Passenger arrivals are running at a fraction of pre-pandemic levels, hobbling the wider economy that thrives on its links to global trade and technology networks.

Singapore has suffered its most severe recession since independence. To get back to business, the city-state is now modelling a new strategy, one that acknowledges a reality that the world may have to live with Covid-19 indefinitely, as it does with influenza.

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The Bloomberg New Economy Forum, scheduled for Nov 16-19 in Singapore, is an important part of the reopening plan.

More than 300 CEOs, heads of state, entrepreneurs, scientists and others have signed up to attend the forum, which will be the largest gathering of its kind since the pandemic began. In hosting the annual event, the Singapore government is seeking to demonstrate that in a new era of pandemics it's possible to be both safe and open. The precondition is a population that's now more than 80 per cent vaccinated.

Still, the new pandemic blueprint - call it "Covid-endemic" - has met with mixed reviews by the Singapore public, particularly as the number of virus cases surges. Not everyone is convinced it's a good idea to throw open the borders after so much sacrifice, even though severe cases of infection are rare.

Indeed, the issue appears to have complicated the informal race to succeed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, with the finance minister seen to be favouring tighter measures to contain Covid-19 and the health minister advocating for a broader opening.

Yet it's arguable that there's no real alternative to coexisting with the virus, especially given the more easily transmitted Delta variant. New Zealand has given up the effort after seeing cases spike despite a nationwide lockdown - no office, gym, church, or in most cases leaving home - following a solitary infection in mid-August.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern finally conceded that the "long tail" of infection "feels more like a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake".

Australia has reached the same conclusion. So has Taiwan, a standout in its efforts to track and trace infections using advanced technologies. That leaves China as the lone "Covid-zero" holdout, a status that may say more about Chinese politics than medical science.

Authorities in Beijing tout the country's "Covid-zero" success as a triumph of socialist ideology in contrast to the shambolic response by the US and other democracies. But even China's awesome state capacity for surveillance and control has limits.

"Covid-zero in the medium- to long-term is unsustainable," said Peter Collignon, an infectious disease physician and professor at the Australian National University Medical School. "Delta shows the almost-impossibility of that. It's hard to see how China will be able to get to zero Covid this winter."

In Singapore, the government is starting to allow quarantine-free access for fully vaccinated visitors who've taken a PCR test before departure. Last month, Changi opened up its first "vaccinated travel lane" for visitors from Germany. Over the weekend, the Republic announced that it was expanding its Vaccinated Travel Lanes to 11 countries including the US and UK.

Bloomberg New Economy Forum delegates will have to test daily at their hotels but will be free to travel around the city. At the conference venue, social-distancing rules will apply. Masks will be obligatory except for speakers.

Meanwhile, city governments in China are building barracks-style accommodation to hold foreign visitors in quarantine. One of them, the Guangzhou International Health Station, has 5,000 rooms. BLOOMBERG